New research cracks the code on what will decide the winner in the battle to decarbonize shipping. For the first time, a systematic study reveals the key to dominance isn’t just technology—it’s cost.
Why we must tackle maritime pollution, quickly
The maritime industry is a massive polluter. To meet climate goals, it must ditch fossil fuels fast. Hydrogen fuel cells promise zero-emission voyages, but the sector faces a trillion-dollar question: which type of fuel cell should it bet on? The wrong choice could stall the green transition for decades, impacting global trade, environmental health, and energy policy.
Two main hydrogen fuel cell technologies are vying for the maritime future. The Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is a lower-temperature, more mature technology known for quick starts and high power density, ideal for cars. The Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) operates at high temperatures, is highly efficient, and can run on multiple fuels like hydrogen, methane, or ammonia. While both have been studied for maritime use, it remained unclear which factors—efficiency, cost, safety, or something else—would ultimately determine which technology becomes the standard that shipbuilders and operators globally will adopt.
This study asked a critical, previously unanswered question: *What factors determine which hydrogen fuel cell design will become dominant in the maritime sector?* Instead of just comparing technical specs, the researchers took a novel approach. They applied the Best-Worst Method (BWM), a decision-making framework, to systematically weigh the importance of key factors like cost, efficiency, and safety, as judged by industry and academic experts. This provided a data-driven forecast for the technology battle.
The Innovation
This work provides the first systematic, factor-driven analysis of design dominance for hydrogen fuel cells in shipping. Its innovation is twofold. First, it shifts the focus from pure technical comparison to identifying the *criteria for market success* in a conservative industry. Second, it successfully applies the BWM methodology to this emerging technological battle, offering a replicable model for predicting standardization in other green tech sectors. By “opening the black box,” the research moves beyond guessing which technology is better on paper to understanding what the market values most in practice.
Results & Key Insights
The data delivered a clear frontrunner. **Fuel cell cost emerged as the most critical factor** for dominance, with a global average weight of 0.18, followed by efficiency and power density. When experts scored the technologies against all factors, the **Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) came out on top with a total score of 5.45, narrowly beating PEMFC’s 5.15**. While SOFCs have higher upfront costs, their superior efficiency, fuel flexibility, and longer lifetime tipped the scales in their favor for maritime applications.
Implications & Future Potential
This suggests the future fleet may not be one-size-fits-all. PEMFCs could dominate short-sea and inland shipping due to lower temperatures and faster startup, while SOFCs may be the solution for long-distance, ocean-going vessels thanks to their fuel flexibility. Shipbuilders, energy companies, and policymakers can use these insights to direct R&D and investments. Future research should examine how factor importance differs by vessel type and region, and explore the environmental trade-offs of a multi-fuel SOFC future.
Conclusion
This research matters because it brings strategic clarity to a critical clean energy crossroads. As the authors conclude, the battle for dominance is still in its early stages, but “SOFC has a higher chance of achieving dominance.” Understanding the rules of the race is the first step to ensuring the greenest and most viable technology wins. Thank you to the research team for this pivotal contribution.
We welcome insights from engineers and maritime professionals. What’s your take on the fuel cell race?
Reference: De Graaf, K. T., Hus, I. H. E., Van Leeuwen, H. J., & Van de Kaa, G. (2025). Towards sustainable energy technologies in the maritime industry: The dominance battle for hydrogen fuel cell technology. *International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 100*, 156–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.12.162